Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Wish I’d known then what I know now.


Investing, for many of us, is one of trial and error.  Lessons may become increasingly expensive as we go.  Wisdom is hard won over years or decades.  At some point we realize that, had we known when we started what we know today, we would have done things differently.  We’d probably be farther along today than we are.  Without those difficult and costly lessons, I suppose our wisdom would not be as deep or meaningful to us as it is.

Real estate investing is an area that provided many tough investing lessons I find helpful today.  Here are seven.

Cash is fact.  Profit is theory. 

In real estate, it’s easy to become enamored with rates of investment return, often no more than paper calculations.  Spreadsheet numbers that look good don’t cover monthly costs.  Cash does.  Don’t get caught in the ROI on paper.  Anyone can make it “look” good.  Cold, hard cash makes it good.

Liquidity is valuable.

Real estate taught me the value of liquidity.  When a rental property is declining in value or the cost structure spirals out of control, hitting the sell button on your laptop and walking away from a bad situation isn’t an option.  The illiquid nature of rental property means there are no stop loss exits. You have to stay the course and hope it gets better.  Somehow.

Financial leverage is an accelerant.

Leverage used buying rental properties can propel you into the atmosphere - or into the ditch.  Used judiciously in small volumes leverage can be helpful.  Thrown like gasoline on an open flame at close range yields excitement you can’t imagine.  Not the good kind.

Diversification reduces risk.

Buying rental real estate, for many, means putting your eggsin one basket.  The entry price normally requires it unless you have unlimited cash or you’re willing to play fast and loose with the financial accelerant noted above.  No liquidity and no diversification means when things go wrong it does so with all your investment money and there’s little you can do.  Until you’ve had the wheels come off the cart, words don’t do justice to reality.

Property taxes have no offset.

With most investments there are ways to offset Federal or state income taxes.  For instance, non-cash expenses like depreciation can shelter cash income from Uncle Sam’s clutches.  Excess operating losses may be carried forward to good years offsetting cash profits for tax mitigation purposes.  Real estate, however, carries with it property taxes that can’t be mitigated unless the value of the property crashes.  There are no write-offs or shelters to shield your investment from property taxes.  You don’t realize this until a year’s worth of thin cash income disappears in a single check to your state treasurer.

Quality of life is more important than I thought.

Investments carry with them different workloads.  The overhead spent is not equal across all.  Rental real estate entails evening, weekend, and holiday work plus travel.  Time spent on a property is time not spent with family and friends.  Having your financial eggs in one basket and needing to guard that basket closely produces anxiety overshadowing many good things in life as well. 

Opportunity / cost should not be discounted.

There are many options into which you can put your investment dollars.  Some are better than others.  You should assess these options against one another before making your allocation decision.  Giving up holidays and celebrations, being absent during family emergencies, or even losing sleep to deal with rental problems can quickly obscure any cash benefits.  Don’t discount time with those you love against a few extra bucks.

A superior option.

Dividend Farming doesn’t come with the boat anchors above making it a superior investment option relative to rental real estate.  For example:
  • Dividend payments are cash, not paper profits. 
  • Dividend stocks, particularly those of large, publicly traded companies are highly liquid.
  • Dividend stocks enable diversification across a wide range of firms and industries at relatively low cost. 
  • Dividend stocks do not require financial leverage.  You don’t have to borrow to invest.  Ever. 
  • Dividend stocks don’t come with property taxes assessed against your dividend distributions. 
  • Quality of life?  Incomparable.  I’ve yet to receive a late night or holiday call from a dividend paying firm with a problem.  Nor have I spent a Saturday traveling to fix a leak, repaint anything, or waste my time showing a property to prospects failing to make their appointments.

The benefits of dividend paying stocks relative to rental real estate generate a clear, decisive opportunity-cost advantage in their favor.
 
It took me nearly a decade of land-lording to get the lesson.  Apparently, I’m a slow learner.  The process was expensive, painful, and to a degree, unnecessary.  However, the investing wisdom gained is deeper than it would have been without the experience.

The thoughts expressed here are those of the author, who is not a financial professional.  Opinions should not be considered investment advice.  They are presented for discussion and entertainment purposes only.  For specific investment advice or assistance, please contact a registered investment advisor, licensed broker, or other financial professional.

Sunday, May 26, 2019

Div Tip #10: Know your investment resources.

Photo of dividend tip jar.
Dividend Tips

It’s hard to learn if you don’t know where to turn.  To over simplify, learning means using information to change behavior.  It becomes challenging to affect the change we want e.g., better investing results, when we don’t know where to find the information we need to reach our goals.

Locating and developing good information resources as a DIY investor is important for success.  Dividend Farmer lists resources that have been useful in the farming effort.  Stock filters, dividend calendars, and company financial information provide a solid foundation upon which to build.  Adding spreadsheet skills, wisdom from successful investors, and research pieces can help round out your resource kit.     

Saturday, May 25, 2019

Div Tip #9: Keep learning.

Photo of Dividend Tip Jar.
Dividend Tips

In the aviation world it’s said that a good pilot is always learning.  This means staying current on technology advances, regulatory updates, and changes to operating procedures in the flight environment.  Doing so helps pilots, air crews, and passengers remain unharmed by adding a margin of safety to all flight operations.

The always learning mindset is appropriate in dividend investing, too.  Ben Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor, advised investors to know as much about their investments as possible.  Doing so requires learning about the dividend histories, earnings strength, and asset security of your investment as well as management strengths, market conditions, and more.  Gathering good information to make good decisions requires learning - whether flying or investing - so keep learning.

"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis (learning), promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative." -- Ben Graham

Top 5 Dividend Payers Going Ex-dividend: Week of 5.27.19

Monday we remember and give thanks to those who gave all.  A Top 5 entry on any list.

The other four days we look at the top dividend paying firms going ex-dividend during the week.  Everest Re Group and Goldman Sachs are Dividend Challengers (CCC) found on the DRIPinvesting.org web site; growing their dividend payments for 6 and 9 years respectively.

Monday:  
Memorial Day - Thank you to those who gave all!

Tuesday:
Everest Re Group, LTD.
Paying: $1.40 per share
On: June 12
Dividend Challenger:  6 Years Growing Divs

Wednesday:
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Paying: $0.85 per share
On: June 27
Dividend Challenger:  9 Years Growing Divs

Thursday:
National Grid Transco, PLC
Paying: $2.006 per share
On: August 14

Friday:
China Petroleum Chemical Corporation
Paying: $3.464 per share
On: June 28

Thoughts expressed here are those of the author, who is not a financial professional.  These opinions should not be considered investment advice.  They are presented for discussion and entertainment purposes.  For specific investment advice or assistance, please contact a registered investment advisor, licensed broker, or other financial professional.

Monday, May 20, 2019

Dividend Farming Scorecard: Walgreens (WBA)


Walgreens Logo.
Walgreens has been a staple of my Dividend Farm for close to a decade.  It had a nice run until recently but is off its 52-week high be a wide margin.  As a result, it’s time to look at WBA to see if this plunge is a structural issue signaling greater problems ahead or a condition of moving from over bought to over sold?

Below is a snapshot of factors I’m scoring for WBA as of May 15, 2019.  Laying out my analysis helps me benchmark a holding or opportunity against target metrics.  It also allows me to quickly compare this firm to alternatives as part of my screening process.

FACTOR
METRICS
WBA
CCC List
Champion
Champion
Current Yield
4.0%
3.27%
Company Profile
Red Flags?
???
Industry Leadership
Top 10
#2 in U.S.
Market Cap
$10 B+
$48.2 B
P/E
< 20
9.9
P/B
< 2
1.95
Debt / Equity
< 1
1.59
Dividend History (Years)
25
43
12 Month Price Range
Lower Half
Bottom 5%
Dividend Payout Ratio
< 75%
32.39%
Portfolio Weight
Slightly Over
Slightly Over

CCC List: The DRIPinvesting.org web site provides the list of Champions, Contenders, and Challengers where I normally start.  WBA is a Dividend Champion with 43 straight years of dividend growth.  Rising above 40 years of consecutive dividend growth puts a firm in rare territory.

Current Yield:  WBA’s yield is 3.27% which is clearly below my desired target.  Given an extensive dividend history and a low payout ratio, there appears to be plenty of upside depending on the state of other metrics.

Company Profile:  WBA is a cornerstone in retail consumables, particularly pharmacy.  As the second largest retail outlet in the U.S. there don’t appear to be large red flags visible.  Walgreens under-performed relative to analyst estimates in early April.  It’s possible the market overreacted to a miss against analyst forecasts.  It happens.

Industry Leadership:  WBA is the #2 in its space in the U.S. by revenue behind only CVS.  Given the trajectory of healthcare and current population demographics (aging rapidly), it’s in a strong position.

Market Capitalization:  At $48.2.B WBA’s market cap is over 4x my target.  Coupled with its market position, the market cap and dividend history offer good stability with plenty of opportunity for div growth.

Price to Earnings:  The trailing P/E of 9.9 is about as solid as it gets.  At that rate, WBA may be approaching bargain territory.

Price to Book:  The P/B ratio of 1.95 is within my range; just.  Close counts and it’s under the wire. 

Debt to Equity:  Debt to equity is nearly 60% over target.  Not ideal.  There’s a fairly high level of treasury stock weighing negatively in this equation.  May be good; may be bad; depending how the firm handles it.   

Dividend History:  Growing dividends for 43 years is outstanding.  Records like that are highly valued by this Dividend Farmer.

Price Range:  The price is barely above its trailing 12-month (TTM) low.  Considering the pullback from its high, no major red flags, solid metrics, and a long history of div growth I’m starting to think WBA is a buy opportunity.

Payout Ratio:  The payout ratio of 32.39% is well under my 75% target ceiling.  WBA has a lot of room to grow its dividend which can beef up yield on cost long term.  It comes with healthy annual dividend pay raises represented by dividend growth rates of 6.4% and 15% over 3 years and 10 year respectively.  This bodes well for future dividend streams helping offset the under target yield noted earlier.

Portfolio Distribution:  WBA falls within my healthcare segment which is not light in my stock bucket.  I can add to it without going far over weight, but shouldn’t over extend if I go this direction.

Analysis  
Of the companies reviewed the past several months (WBA) scores really well against my benchmarks and the other company Scorecards.  The yield isn’t where I’d like it to be but WBA is solid, has a great record, and continues to offer room for nice dividend growth.  If the large drop is due to nothing more than finicky analysts, the financial equivalent of television weathermen, then the dip, although large, may be temporary.  Along with ADM, this Champion is on my short list when investment cash becomes available.

The thoughts expressed here are those of the author, who is not a financial professional.  Opinions should not be considered investment advice.  They are presented for discussion and entertainment purposes only.  For specific investment advice or assistance, please contact a registered investment advisor, licensed broker, or other financial professional.

Saturday, May 18, 2019

5 Top Dividend Payers Going Ex-dividend: Week of 5.20.19.

The top dividend paying firms going ex-dividend each day this week are listed below.  Equinix, Eversource Energy, and Prudential Financial are among the Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers (CCC) found on the DRIPinvesting.org web site.

Monday:  
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles 
Paying: $1.30 per share
On: May 30

Tuesday:
Equinix, Inc.
Paying: $2.46 per share
On: June 19
Dividend Challenger:  Years Div Growth - 5

Wednesday:
Eversource Energy
Paying: $0.535 per share
On: June 28
Dividend Contender:  Years Div Growth - 21

Thursday:
Werner Enterprises
Paying: $3.75 per share
On: June 7

Friday:
Prudential Financial
Paying: $1. per share
On: June 20
Dividend Contender:  Years Div Growth - 11

Thoughts expressed here are those of the author, who is not a financial professional.  These opinions should not be considered investment advice.  They are presented for discussion and entertainment purposes.  For specific investment advice or assistance, please contact a registered investment advisor, licensed broker, or other financial professional.

Friday, May 17, 2019

Dividend Farming Scorecard: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)

Archer-Daniels-Midland Logo.
Archer-Daniels-Midland

As a Dividend Farmer who grew up working on a farm in Western Nebraska I have a soft spot for agriculture.  Archer-Daniels-Midland is a major play in the agricultural sector and I own a small position.  I’ve been looking through Dividend Champions for good additions to my Dividend Farm and ADM is a Champion in an underweight sector in my portfolio.  I thought I’d review it to see if it should remain on the farm or added to.

The table provides a snapshot of factors I’m scoring for ADM as of May 15, 2019.  Laying out my analysis helps me benchmark a holding or opportunity against target metrics.  It also allows me to quickly compare this firm to alternatives as part of my screening process.

FACTOR
METRICS
ADM
CCC List
Champion
Champion
Current Yield
4.0%
3.32%
Company Profile
Red Flags?
China Trade War
Industry Leadership
Top 10
#2 in World
Market Cap
$10 B+
$22.9 B
P/E
< 20
14.1
P/B
< 2
1.2
Debt / Equity
< 1
1.45
Dividend History (Years)
25
44
12 Month Price Range
Lower Half
Bottom Quartile
Dividend Payout Ratio
< 75%
46.7%
Portfolio Weight
Slightly Over
Under

CCC List: The DRIPinvesting.org web site provides the list of Champions, Contenders, and Challengers where I normally start.   (ADM) is a Dividend Champion with 44 straight years of dividend growth.  Not many firms can top that streak

Current Yield:  ADM’s yield is 3.32% which is nearly 25% below my desired target.  With a long history of increases it could be worse, particularly if there’s room for increases in the payout ratio.  Although not ideal, the yield alone is not a show-stopper.

Company Profile:  ADM is a stalwart in the world of agriculture known primarily for its role in the food commodity sector.  The firm trades, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises a broad range of crops produced in the U.S. and abroad.  The current trade war with China is depressing agricultural prices, but that’s not a structural issue with the company nor is it like to continue indefinitely.

Industry Leadership:  ADM is the #2 agribusiness in the world by revenue behind only family-owned Cargill, per Tharawat Magazine.

Market Capitalization:  At $22.9 B ADM’s market cap is more than double my minimum.  Coupled with its global position, the market cap and dividend history offer good stability.

Price to Earnings:  The trailing P/E of 14.1 is well within my range indicating investors aren’t overpaying for ADM’s future income stream.

Price to Book:  The P/B ratio of 1.2 is solid at a point 40% below my target.  Paying a buck-twenty for a dollar’s worth of ownership isn’t as nice as paying pennies for a dollar, but it’s still within safe range.

Debt to Equity:  Debt to equity is 45% over target.  Not ideal.   

Dividend History:  Growing dividends for 44 years is stellar.  If a Champion is crowned after 25 years, going 44 carries a lot of weight for a value investor like this Dividend Farmer.

Price Range:  The price range is in the bottom quartile of its trailing 12-month (TTM) range.  Given the pullback from its high and no major red flags, this appears to be a buy opportunity.

Payout Ratio:  The payout ratio of 46.7% is well under my 75% target ceiling.  ADM has a lot of room to grow its dividend which bodes well for long-term yield on cost and annual pay raises for those of us looking at future dividend streams. This helps make up for the under target yield noted earlier.

Portfolio Distribution:  ADM is a smallish holding in my basket.  I could add considerably to it without fear of my portfolio becoming unbalanced.

Analysis  
Of the companies reviewed the past several months (ADM) scores remarkably well against my benchmarks and better than other firms thus far.  Although the yield is lower than I’d like, ADM’s stability and room for div growth are attractive.  The trade war with China affecting U.S. agricultural commodities is a bother, but likely temporary.  The world will continue eating in which case demand for ADM’s products and services won’t go away.  Unless I find a better Champion soon, taking a 3%+ yield on the dip is better than a zero interest rate and no-growth opportunity on cash in my bank account.

The thoughts expressed here are those of the author, who is not a financial professional.  Opinions should not be considered investment advice.  They are presented for discussion and entertainment purposes only.  For specific investment advice or assistance, please contact a registered investment advisor, licensed broker, or other financial professional.