Thursday, May 16, 2019

Div Tip #8: Understand how to use probability in investment analysis.

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Warren Buffett employs probability analysis in his investment activities.  As his business practice developed over time so did his approach to probability analysis.  If we follow his path, it’s possible we can improve our investing performance, too.
 
The phrase “it’s possible” is an example of a probability assessment.  It represents a point of view (subjective) on the likelihood, the chance, the probability of an event happening which, in this case, is improving our investment performance.  This kind of thinking, used daily, may be honed with repetition when exploring investment opportunities to make better selections and reduce risk along the way.  The result is increased margin of safety and, in all “probability”, greater long-run returns.

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